How Solar Flares Hint That They’re About to Happen

Forecasting solar flares is one of the major challenges facing solar physicists today. New research finds that non-thermal emission can precede a solar flare by more than an hour, and this early emission may signal whether the flare will be accompanied by an explosion of plasma.

Flare Flavors

Solar flares come in two basic flavors: eruptive and confined. Eruptive flares are accompanied by the launch of tangled clouds of plasma and magnetic fields called coronal mass ejections. Confined flares, so called because the solar plasma remains confined to the Sun, feature only a brief blast of high-energy radiation.

Both solar flares and coronal mass ejections can disrupt everyday life on Earth, with flares knocking out radio communications and coronal mass ejections threatening spacecraft electronics and power grids. Given these real-life risks, as well as the potential for probing the physics behind the activity on the Sun and other stars, it’s critical to be able to identify signs of upcoming flares.

Looking at the Lead-Up

Luckily, there’s growing evidence that the Sun sends out subtle signals that a flare is soon to happen. One early sign of an impending flare is an increase in the non-thermal velocity of the plasma at the flare’s location. This phenomenon has been spotted in individual flares, but it hasn’t been studied and characterized for a large sample of flares — until now.

A recent research article led by Andy S. H. To (European Space Agency) takes the first systematic, large-scale approach to studying the non-thermal velocity changes that precede solar flares. The team amassed a sample of 1,449 solar flares that were seen by the Hinode spacecraft, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Hinode provided the spectral information needed to identify increases in the non-thermal velocity, GOES provided the flare start times, and SDO provided detailed information on the location and appearance of each flare.

Of the flares in the sample, 83% were moderately powerful C-class flares, 18% were stronger M-class flares, and 1% were the most powerful X-class flares. To’s team identified a clear trend across all types of flares: the non-thermal velocity increases 4–25 minutes before the flare’s X-ray emission begins to rise, peaks when the X-ray emission peaks, and decays as the flare decays. The team found some evidence that for smaller flares, the velocity increase begins in spectral lines that trace cooler plasma before spreading to lines probing hotter plasma, but more work is needed to confirm this trend.

More Details

Certain flares give even earlier hints of upcoming activity. M-class flares and some C-class flares exhibit what To’s team calls “precursor emission,” which emerges roughly 30–60 minutes before the flare’s X-ray emission peaks. The team also identified differences in precursor emission between confined and eruptive flares: eruptive flares display precursor emission over a broad range of spectral lines starting 45–74 minutes before the flare peaks, while confined flares show precursor emission later (31–54 minutes before peak) and in only a few spectral lines.

These results suggest that changes in the non-thermal velocity of solar plasma can not only signal when and where a flare is likely to arise, but also whether the flare will be accompanied by a potentially destructive coronal mass ejection. Upcoming missions like the Multi-slit Solar Explorer and SOLAR-C will give an even better view of the early stages of solar flares, helping to illuminate the physics behind them and enhancing our ability to forecast them.

Citation

“Systematic Nonthermal Velocity Increase Preceding Soft X-Ray Flare Onset: A Large-Scale Hinode/EIS Study,” Andy S. H. To et al 2025 ApJ 993 102. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae07de