Planets Around Small Stars Even Less Likely to Have Atmospheres Than Previously Thought

Which of the nearly 6,000 known exoplanets have atmospheres? New research suggests that small, rocky planets around the smallest and coolest stars are even less likely to hang on to their atmospheres than suggested by previous research. This result will help to guide the selection of target exoplanets for atmospheric characterization.

Approaching a Milestone

Today, the Exoplanet Archive reports that humanity has discovered 5,921 exoplanets, bringing us only a handful of detections away from the remarkable milestone of 6,000 known exoplanets. Though just a small fraction of the hundreds of billions to trillions of worlds estimated to occupy our galaxy, this planet sample is ripe for the search for atmospheres, habitable surfaces, and even life. But where to look?

When seeking planets with atmospheres, researchers must consider how a planet has fared in its lifelong battle between gravity and radiation. Massive planets orbiting calm stars are more likely to have atmospheres than lightweight planets around active stars. Astronomers define the cosmic shoreline as the dividing line between planets with atmospheres and planets without, in terms of escape velocity and the extreme-ultraviolet flux of the star.

Charting the Cosmic Shoreline

To predict on which side of the cosmic shoreline a particular planet lies, it’s not enough to know the current extreme-ultraviolet flux of its host star. A star’s extreme-ultraviolet flux changes over time, and integrating these changes over the lifetime of a planet yields its position along the shoreline. In a new research article, Emily Pass (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and collaborators have suggested that this integration hasn’t been performed correctly for certain planets.

As stars age, they spin more slowly, and this slowdown is accompanied by a decrease in atmosphere-stealing stellar activity. For all stars down through early type M dwarfs, the slowdown is uniform, but research has shown that for mid-to-late M dwarfs, the transition from fast to slow rotation is sudden. Pass and coauthors suspected that this difference could impact how much radiation the planets of mid-to-late M dwarfs receive over their lifetimes.

Crossing the Line

Pass’s team estimated the flux of mid-to-late M dwarfs during two phases of their lives: the “saturated” phase, during which the stars rotate rapidly and their high-energy flux does not scale with their rotation rate, and the “unsaturated” phase, during which the high-energy flux declines as the rotation rate slows. The team consulted the literature to find the X-ray flux of M dwarfs during the two phases, then used a statistical approach to estimate how long the stars spend in each of these phases. The team also considered the impact of stellar flares as well as the stars’ lengthy pre-main-sequence phase, during which their overall luminosity is higher than it is once the star has fully contracted and begun its main-sequence lifetime.

Ultimately, these factors mean that it’s more challenging than previously predicted for planets around mid-to-late M dwarfs to hold on to their atmospheres. This recalculation even pushed some planets from one side of the cosmic shoreline to the other. The team also noted that certain planets still tagged as potentially having atmospheres may in reality be gaseous rather than terrestrial, highlighting the need for more work to characterize these worlds and guide the selection of target exoplanets for JWST and other sensitive telescopes.

Citation

“The Receding Cosmic Shoreline of Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs: Measurements of Active Lifetimes Worsen Challenges for Atmosphere Retention by Rocky Exoplanets,” Emily K. Pass et al 2025 ApJL 986 L3. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/adda39