The gravitational wave background — the constant, low-frequency hum of colliding supermassive black holes across the universe — seems to have a larger amplitude than expected. Can preferential accretion explain why?
Larger than Expected

The peculiar galaxy Arp 122, shown here in a Hubble Space Telescope image, is in the process of merging. When two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers eventually merge as well. [ESA/Hubble & NASA, J. Dalcanton, Dark Energy Survey/DOE/FNAL/DECam/CTIO/NOIRLab/NSF/AURA; Acknowledgement: L. Shatz; CC BY 4.0]
Though some researchers have invoked new physics to explain this discrepancy, all that may be required is an adjustment to our understanding of the supermassive black hole binary population in our universe. In a recent research article, Julia Comerford (University of Colorado Boulder) and Joseph Simon (University of Colorado Boulder; Oregon State University) tackled one of the underlying assumptions about the masses of merging supermassive black holes.
Preferential Accretion Pathway
When supermassive black holes merge, the strength of the gravitational wave signal depends on how similar the black holes were in mass; merging equal-mass black holes produce stronger signals than mismatched black holes do. What if, Comerford and Simon proposed, the masses of merging supermassive black holes scattered across the universe are more similar than previously thought?

The initial and final black hole mass ratio, q. The blue and orange lines show a 10% and 20% increase in the total mass of the binary, respectively. The dotted line divides major mergers (q ≥ 0.25) and minor mergers. [Comerford & Simon 2025]
What’s more, it appears that the smaller of the two black holes tends to pack on more mass, meaning that the masses of the black holes grow more similar as they wind toward a merger. (This somewhat counterintuitive result arises because the smaller of the two black holes encounters more gas as it spirals inward.)
Boosting the Signal
If accretion tends to even out the masses of the binary members, is the resulting increase in signal strength large enough to explain the observed amplitude of the gravitational wave background?

Probability distribution functions for the calculated gravitational wave background amplitude for different accretion conditions. The brown diamond shows the median amplitude from the NANOGrav data set. [Adapted from Comerford & Simon 2025]
The signal-boosting effect from preferential accretion may be especially important if the binary evolution timescale — the time it takes for black holes approaching a merger to reach a separation at which their gravitational waves become accessible to pulsar timing arrays — is longer than the estimated 1.8 billion years. At longer timescales, models without this accretion become entirely inconsistent with observations. Future research that examines the masses and accretion rates of supermassive black holes as they approach make their way toward a merger can provide further clues to the role of preferential accretion.
Citation
“Preferential Accretion onto the Secondary Black Hole Strengthens Gravitational-Wave Signals,” Julia M. Comerford and Joseph Simon 2025 ApJ 994 168. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae1133