Third Star’s the Charm: Most Merging Black Holes Might Be in Triple Systems

Where do black hole mergers happen? Recent research finds evidence that most black hole mergers occur in triple systems containing a close inner binary and a more distant third party.

Assembling Merging Black Holes

Thanks to the combined efforts of the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA gravitational wave detectors, we’ve now collected the subtle signals from several hundred pairs of merging stellar-mass black holes. As this collection of spacetime ripples continues to grow, researchers are seeking to understand how these merging black hole pairs were assembled.

In the simplest scenario, pairs of high-mass stars independently evolve into black holes, lose momentum by emitting gravitational waves, and meld into one another. But the population of merging black holes likely contains contributions from multiple sources, including multiple-star systems, the disks surrounding accreting supermassive black holes, and black holes that have already experienced a merger. Which of these merging populations is reflected in our catalog of gravitational wave events?

Modeling Challenges

In theory, this question can be answered by extracting the properties of merging black holes — mass, spin, and the like — from gravitational wave observations and comparing these properties against model predictions from different formation pathways. In reality, this is exceedingly difficult, as certain merger pathways can produce a wide variety of results, depending on assumptions or fine tuning.

So far, the increasingly large pool of gravitational wave detections tentatively points to a feature that could illuminate the sites of black hole mergers: a peak in the spin–orbit tilt distribution around 90 degrees. This feature has been most confidently extracted from nonparametric analyses, which do not make assumptions about the population of merging black holes, but it has also been hinted at in parametric analyses, which do make population-level assumptions.

Triple-System Feature

To investigate this feature further, a team led by Jakob Stegmann (Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics) performed a new, astrophysically motivated parametric analysis of the most recent catalog of gravitational wave detections from LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA.

Their modeling tests combinations of multiple populations, including mergers in isolated binary systems, triple-star systems, and dense environments like star clusters. They also include a potential contribution from higher-mass mergers involving black holes that have merged previously. Using this framework, Stegmann’s team found that the observed spin–orbit tilt distribution is best matched by a model dominated by mergers in triple-star systems, with some contribution from other sources.

Specifically, this finding suggests that most mergers occur in hierarchical triple systems, which naturally predict an excess of 90-degree spin–orbit tilts without any fine tuning. Hierarchical triples contain an inner close binary with a distant outer companion; in these systems, relativistic spin precession, gravitational wave emission, and oscillations in eccentricity and inclination work to tilt the black holes in the inner binary by 90 degrees.

Stegmann and collaborators pointed out that the triple-system scenario aligns well with other properties of the observed population of black hole mergers, such as the mass and effective spin distributions. This scenario may also be necessary to explain certain merging pairs that might have had slightly eccentric orbits at the moment of merging. If future gravitational wave observations strengthen the evidence for a peak in the spin–orbit tilt distribution near 90 degrees, it will have profound implications for how and where black holes merge in our universe.

Citation

“Gravitational-Wave Observations Suggest Most Black Hole Mergers Form in Triples,” Jakob Stegmann et al 2026 ApJL 1000 L59. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae52ec