Discovered in December 2024, the roughly 60-meter-wide asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially thought to have a slim chance of striking Earth in 2032. Further observations ruled out an Earth impact but left open the possibility of a Moon impact. New JWST observations show that 2024 YR4 will speed past both Earth and the Moon without a collision.
Another Update on 2024 YR4
In April 2025, we featured a Research Note that described March 2025 JWST observations of 2024 YR4 and characterized the asteroid’s size and albedo. At the close of that article, the authors suggested that further JWST observations in early 2026 could help to refine our understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory and determine whether it would strike the Moon.
On 18 and 26 February 2026, JWST carried out those critical observations. In this dataset, the asteroid is bright enough to be detected confidently, and the background is peppered with a sufficient number of reference stars — two factors necessary to determine the precise track of the asteroid as it zipped through space.
Trajectory Refinement
Difference between the position of 2024 YR4 determined in this work using three different reduction methods (red, blue, and green circles) and the position drawn from the existing orbit from the JPL Horizons database. The different analysis methods yielded consistent results. [Adapted from De Wit et al. 2026]
Combining the latest JWST observations with existing data stretching back to the asteroid’s discovery, de Wit and coauthors determined a new, highly precise orbit for the object — one that definitively shows that the asteroid will safely pass by the Moon at a distance of 22,900 ± 800 km in 2032. In addition to ruling out the upcoming lunar impact, the team also ruled out any collisions with Earth in the next 100 years. Phew!
Position of 2024 YR4 as seen by JWST in February 2026 (white dashed circle) compared to the asteroid’s location estimated from existing data (red circle). [De Wit et al. 2026]
High-Impact Science
This work highlights JWST’s potential as a tool for planetary defense. The February 2026 observations detailed here represent the faintest-ever detection of a near-Earth object, and JWST can detect objects far fainter than ground-based telescopes can. This ability allows JWST to observe potentially hazardous asteroids over a larger swath of their orbits, which translates to earlier trajectory estimation — JWST pinned down 2024 YR4’s orbit two years before the asteroid would have become bright enough for ground-based telescopes to do so.
JWST’s role may be even more important for smaller objects that rapidly become undetectable after discovery. De Wit’s team demonstrated this for a 10-meter-diameter 2024 YR4 clone on the same trajectory; for an object of this size, JWST would be able to rule out an Earth impact before the asteroid became undetectable, but ground-based telescopes could not. With surveys from facilities like Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Near-Earth Object Surveyor set to discover hundreds of thousands of new near-Earth objects, JWST’s role as a hazard assessor will likely be in high demand.
Citation
“JWST Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Rule Out a 2032 Lunar Impact and Demonstrate a New Regime for Planetary Defense Follow-Up,” Julien de Wit et al 2026 ApJL 1003 L21. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae6a95