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Title: Carbon Cycle Imbalances on Arid Terrestrial Planets with Implications for Venus
Authors: Haskelle T. White-Gianella and Joshua Krissansen-Totton
Authors’ Institution: University of Washington
Status: Published in PSJ
The Carbon-Cycle Thermostat
When discussing the habitability of planets, we usually focus on the habitable zone, the region around a star where a planet can host a temperature suitable for supporting liquid water on its surface. Yet, being in the right place doesn’t necessarily guarantee that a planet will be habitable.
A planet also needs the right atmospheric composition to sustain the necessary temperatures for hosting liquid water. A key mechanism found on Earth for maintaining this composition is the geologic carbon cycle, which acts as a built-in climate control system. This cycle begins with volcanic eruptions releasing carbon dioxide (CO2), which then dissolves in rainwater and forms a weak acid that weathers rocks on continents. The weathering products wash into oceans, where they form carbonate rocks, locking carbon away. Eventually, plate tectonics recycles some of that carbon back to volcanoes. The weathering process works faster when the planet is warmer, thus regulating the amount of CO2 and stabilizing the climate over long periods of time (but it should be noted that it can take up to a few hundred thousand years to rebalance this slow carbon cycle through the weathering process).
An important caveat is that the weathering process requires sufficient liquid water on the planet’s surface, so what happens in the case for planets with shallower oceans? Low-mass M dwarfs, the most common type of star found in the galaxy, are expected to host less-massive disks and therefore lower water inventories for forming planets. If more “dry” planets are indeed a more likely outcome of planet formation, we’d want to know how their arid conditions influence their long-term evolution and habitability.
Creating Carbon-Tracking Models
The authors built a model that tracks how water and CO2 move between a planet’s interior, oceans, and atmosphere over 4.5 billion years. The model notably includes the following:
- A sophisticated weathering model that accounts for how runoff can limit rock weathering, improving upon previous models that only included a temperature dependence on weathering
- Wind-driven evaporation limits that influence the amount of water evaporation in addition to sunlight-driven evaporation
- Multiple deep water cycle parameterizations that explore how water moves between the interior and the surface
The model tests for four initial surface water inventories (0.1%, 1%, 10%, and 100% of Earth’s oceans) and then simulates how the surface water, atmosphere, and climate evolve over time.
A Critical Water Threshold
The models reveal that planets require at least 20–50% of Earth’s ocean mass to maintain a balanced carbon cycle. Below this threshold, the carbon cycle becomes unbalanced, leading to devastating consequences for habitability (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Final surface temperature after simulating 4.5 billion years of evolution as a function of initial water inventory for Earth-like planets. Each dot represents a model run with different assumptions (total carbon inventory, temperature dependence of weathering, soil age, etc.). The yellow region shows where most simulations result in uninhabitable surface temperatures from an unbalanced carbon cycle, and the cyan region shows where most simulations result in habitable surface temperatures and a balanced carbon cycle. The left and right plots show the results for two different parameterizations of the deep water cycle implemented in the model. [White-Gianella & Krissansen-Totton 2026]
Important Implications (Within and Outside Our Solar System)
Looking within the solar system, the results offer an explanation for how a potentially habitable Venus could have transitioned into its current inhospitable state. If Venus had formed with an initial water inventory below this critical threshold of 20–50% of Earth’s ocean mass, then its carbon cycle would have become unbalanced, creating the CO2 inferno seen on Venus today.
In future exoplanet studies, telescopes like the Habitable Worlds Observatory might detect ocean glint (specular reflection from liquid water) or measure land fraction from light curves. Finding a planet in the habitable zone but with limited ocean coverage would likely be bad news, as the planet could be quietly losing its grip on habitability. Astronomers may want to be more careful when looking at seemingly promising planets within their habitable zones.
Original astrobite edited by Natalie Price.
About the author, Jared Bull:
I am a 2nd-year PhD student at Johns Hopkins University. I study brown-dwarf variability and am interested in using time-series observations to uncover dynamic processes within their atmospheres. In my free time I like to read, cook, and do astrophotography.